What really determines market direction?

What really makes stock prices go up or down? Is it really as simple as what goes up must come down and vice versa? How do I select stocks with the best profit potential? Stock prices are constantly fluctuating and many times there seems to be no ‘rhyme or reason’ to this constant price fluctuation. The air waves and the Internet are flooded with analysts and experts who try to predict the future price moves for stocks.

Often they have no real answers to our same questions and are just as baffled by why a stock is going up or going down. Where does that leave us? Let’s face it; to the average investor the stock market can seem complicated and confusing.

Stocks can go up or down for no apparent reason. Apple reports great earnings but the stock plummets. The price of oil drops and the inflation report is tame but the major stock market indexes dive. Pfizer reports terrible earnings but the stock rallies. With the spinning wheel, going round and round, the ups and downs of the markets can leave anyone’s head going round and round. When it comes right down to it, the reason why stock prices are going up or down seems to be anybody’s guess. You might as well try to read tea leaves.

Highly paid analysts would have us believe that a company’s earnings outlook drive stock prices. Yet how many times have you seen the stock of companies with good earnings plummet while those with terrible earnings soar? Just like bad things happen to good people, big stock declines can happen to good companies. It is a fact of life with no true explanation.

But none of that matters for one simple reason. At the end of the day, if there are more buy orders for a stock than sell orders then the price of the stock will go up. And if there are more sell orders for a stock than buy orders, then the price of the stock will go down. It’s just that simple. Everything else is just noise. Everything else does not matter.

To make real money in the stock or options markets you don’t need to know why a stock price rises or falls, you just need to know two things: when to buy and when to sell. If you can quantitatively measure the buying and selling pressure of a stock then you will know in advance whether the price of a stock is likely to go up or down. And you will then know if you should take a bullish or bearish option position.

In other words, if you get a reading on the buying pressure and selling pressure for a stock you can successfully assess whether a stock is likely to go up or go down in price. There are numerous ways to measure the buying and selling pressure of a stock. We want to teach you several methods. That way you can use all the methods or just work with the methods you are most comfortable. Remember comfort and ease are what we are aim for!

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